North Korea claimed to have successfully test-fired an ICBM as a warning to US and Seoul on Sunday. Pyongyang said the successful “surprise” exercise showed its “capability of deadly nuclear counterattack.”
The “sudden launching drill” was ordered by leader Kim Jong Un at 8 am on Saturday (2300 GMT), and a Hwasong-15 missile, a weapon the North first tested in 2017, was shot from Pyongyang airport that afternoon, according to the official KCNA.
The ICBM was launched at 17:22 (08:22 GMT) on Saturday, according to South Korea’s military, while Japan claimed it flew for 66 minutes before coming down in its Exclusive Economic Zone. Japan’s investigation showed the missile could have targeted the US mainland, according to Tokyo.
The test, the nation’s first in seven weeks, was praised by North Korea’s leadership, who said it demonstrated “the true war capability of the ICBM units which are ready for mobile and overwhelming counterattack,” according to KCNA.
It was further stated that the launch was “real proof” of the nation’s “ability of lethal nuclear reprisal on the aggressor troops.”
Only days before Seoul and Washington are scheduled to begin joint tabletop exercises aimed at sharpening their response in the event of a North Korean nuclear attack, the sanctions-busting launch took place.
Last week, Pyongyang issued a warning that it will respond “unprecedentedly” strongly to impending military exercises, which it describes as war preparations and attributes to the deteriorating security situation on the Korean peninsula.
New benchmark?
According to US-based analyst Ankit Panda, the Saturday test is notable since “the event was ordered the day-of and hence this is not so much a standard “test,” but an exercise.”
He continued, “We should anticipate seeing more exercises of this nature.”
According to Soo Kim, a former CIA Korea specialist who now works at management consulting firm LMI, the drill appeared to be “Kim’s method of alerting the US and ROK that his country is continuing to refine its ballistic missile capabilities for ultimate use in a real-time scenario.”
“She said that the firearms weren’t only there to be seen. This layer of imminence is likely intimidating the allies, especially as they work to increase deterrence on the Korean Peninsula.”
But, she noted that the nine-hour period between Kim Jong Un’s directive and the launch itself was “a considerable time,” indicating Pyongyang might encounter “more obstacles in launching in a realistic scenario.”
After North Korea declared itself a “irreversible” nuclear state and leader Kim demanded a “exponential” rise in weapon development, including tactical nukes, relations between the two Koreas have already reached one of their lowest points in years.
In response, South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol has pledged to expand cooperative military drills and enhance Washington’s so-called extended deterrence offering, including with nuclear assets, in an effort to strengthen relations with a crucial security ally.
According to a KCNA article, Kim Yo Jong, a spokeswoman for North Korea and Kim Jong Un’s sister, declared on Sunday that these actions by Seoul and Washington were what “further endangers the situation every moment, shattering the stability of the region.”
“I warn that we will watch every enemy move and take proportional, very forceful, and overwhelming counteraction against its every hostile move against us,” she continued.
Scarcity of food?
All of this suggests “the beginning of high-intensity provocations from North Korea,” according to Park Won-gon, an Ewha University professor, who spoke to AFP.
He said that in contrast to 2022, “last year, their excuse for the launches was that they were a part of their five-year military plan.”
“They are now making it obvious that they will oppose South Korea and the United States,”
According to Park, Pyongyang’s increased aggression could also be a sign that things at home have gotten worse. After years of seclusion due to the virus, South Korean officials recently issued a serious food scarcity warning.
“As part of its “seize mentality” strategy to triumph over internal strife, North Korea consistently adopts a harsh stance and foments external crises. In order to bring the population together, North Korea frequently emphasises the threat posed by the US and South Korea.”