Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has been on the run for more than 15 years, made his first official return to the nation on Tuesday. His arrival reintroduced a towering and contentious figure at a time when the kingdom’s sometimes tumultuous political environment is in a new state of change.
Thailand’s ex-PM Thaksin returns after 17 years: Former owner of Manchester City Football Club and patriarch of a well-known political dynasty, Thaksin served as prime minister from 2001 until he was overthrown in a military coup in 2006 while in New York for a UN summit.
He made a brief return to Thailand in 2008 but subsequently fled the country due to a corruption conviction. If he were to return, he could potentially face a prison sentence of up to 10 years.
As lawmakers endeavor to resolve the political deadlock persisting for over three months, stemming from the election triumph of a prominent progressive party hindered by the nation’s political establishment, Thaksin’s return after an extended absence aligns with an imminent parliamentary vote for a new prime minister.
Thaksin, 74, had been teasing his return for weeks, but the first concrete evidence of it appeared in videos of his sister Yingluck Shinawatra, who also lives in self-exile, hugging her brother before he boarded a plane in Singapore on Tuesday morning.
At nine in the morning local time, Thaksin’s private plane touched down at Bangkok’s Don Mueang International Airport. About 90 minutes later, he and his kids left the airport’s private jet terminal, welcomed a group of fans, and then bowed before a picture of Thailand’s monarch.
Later, Paetongtarn, the daughter of Thaksin, shared a picture of her father holding his newborn granddaughter for the first time. After that, the former prime minister departed in a police truck for the Supreme Court.
divided country
Thaksin built a political force that has dominated Thai politics in some capacity for the past 20 years with his populist policies that catered to Thailand’s rural and working classes.
The Thaksin-supported Pheu Thai party, which secured the second position in the May election, will nominate Srettha Thavisin, a real estate tycoon, as their candidate.
Pheu Thai on Monday, in a surprising about-face, reached an agreement with its old military adversaries in an effort to win enough parliamentary support to establish a government.
Despite emphasising opposition to the military in its election campaign, Palang Pracharath and the United Thai Nation Party are part of its 11-party coalition.
Both of these parties have affiliations with the military dictatorship that toppled a democratically elected government led by Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck. They are also linked to coup leader and departing prime minister, Prayut Chan-o-Cha.
Unpopular Coalition Deal Sparks Concern and Protest Potential
In addition, the action goes against the wishes of the vast majority of Thai voters who supported progressive parties in the May election, dealing a severe blow to the military-backed elite that has dominated Thailand since the coup.
Move Forward Party, which received the most votes during the election, would not be a part of the coalition, according to Cholnan Srikaew, the leader of the Pheu Thai Party.
A taboo subject in Thailand, where any honest discussion of the monarchy is fraught with the prospect of prison due to strong lese majeste laws known as Article 112, Move Forward won on a platform of radical change and had committed to undertake royal reform.
The partnership is probably going to throw fuel to the fire of the progressive movement’s young support base and raise the possibility for large-scale street protests now that Move Forward is in the opposition.
According to Reuters, around 64% of 1,310 respondents in a survey conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration expressed objection or complete disagreement with the notion of the Pheu Thai party establishing a “special government” with opponents backed by the military.
Thaksin Shinawatra: Who is He?
The uncertainly surrounding Thaksin’s homecoming now adds another element to the tumultuous political climate.
Thaksin, a billionaire in the telecoms industry, came to power in 2001 after winning a resounding election. Thanks to his offers of free healthcare, debt relief, and his anti-establishment position, he became extremely well-liked among the rural poor. Eventually, corporations flocked to him as well, partly because of his patented “Thaksinomics,” which helped usher in a period of economic boom.
The policies targeted rural Thais, constituting the majority of the population. These policies encompassed loans and debt relief for farmers, along with subsidized fuel prices, improved healthcare, and enhanced educational access. However, these policies were vehemently disliked by affluent elites and conservatives. They accused Thaksin of practicing a dangerous and corrupt form of populism.
Since 1932, the military in Thailand has successfully staged more than a dozen coups, giving them a long history of usurping power.
Following his ouster in 2006 and the threat of a prison sentence due to corruption-related charges, Thaksin enforced his own exile.
Thaksin’s Pervasive Influence in Thai Politics Amidst Challenges
According to Thitinan Pongsudhirak, professor of political science and senior fellow at the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University, “He became a threat because his popularity was competing against the establishment.”
Despite being physically absent, Thaksin continues to have a significant impact on Thai politics. Political parties affiliated with Thaksin had won the most seats in every election since 2001 up until this year, but they had difficulty holding onto power as a result of the military’s interference, whether through coups or other ways.
As an example, Yingluck, Thaksin’s sister, assumed the role of the nation’s first female prime minister in 2011. However, the Constitutional Court removed her from office in 2014 after allegations of abuse of power.
The Pheu Thai administration was then overthrown by the former army head Prayut, and Yingluck fled into exile alongside Thaksin. Since then, Prayut has been in charge of Thailand. In July, he declared his intention to stop running for office.
“His opponents and foes have tried everything to depose (Thaksin), including doing so twice — once in 2006 against him and once in 2014 against his sister — through a military coup. His parties have been disbanded twice, according to Thitinan. “In Thailand, we’ve been through so much.”
Paetongtarn, Thaksin’s daughter, came into prominence this year when the Pheu Thai party selected her as one of the three prime ministerial candidates in the May election, right before the unexpected victory of the Move Forward Party.
a window of chance
According to observers, Move Forward’s rapid growth may have presented a chance for Thaksin to finally return to Thailand.
The party calls for more reforms than even Pheu Thai ever did, including changes to the armed forces, the economy, the decentralisation of authority, and the once-impenetrable monarchy.
Many young people support it because they “saw that Thailand was going nowhere,” according to Thitinan. “The military and the conservative, royalist establishment were holding Thailand back and wasting their future.”
But the establishment, a strong clique with close ties to the military, royalist, and commercial establishments, is at risk from that agenda. It also relieves pressure from Thaksin, who, according to Thitinan, had long been the main roadblock facing Thailand’s leaders.
He claimed that since Thaksin was no longer a threat, there was now a chance for him to reach an agreement. He is 74 years old, and this was the first election that his party lost. The actual threat comes from Move Forward, hence Thaksin is moving to return.
Thaksin’s Return to a Changed Political Landscape and Shifting Support
Political analysts have hypothesised that given his court convictions and the charges against him, Thaksin may have reached some sort of agreement with Thai authorities for his return.
Even though his supporters may be celebrating his return home, Thaksin still has a strong base of support. However, he also faces criticism for his alleged wrongdoing, enormous riches, and dictatorial leadership style.
Furthermore, the nation he is returning to exhibits significant differences from the one he departed. In 2020, mass rallies demanding monarchy reform emerged as unprecedented expressions of dissent, prompted by the growing discontent, especially among the younger generation.
Thaksin is no longer the centre of Thai politics, according to Thitinan. “The Move Forward Party is proposing institutional reforms of the royalist establishment; it is no longer about Thaksin populism in Thailand.”
A deal with the Thai establishment that Thaksin makes might be seen as a betrayal of the values he once fought to uphold.
As Move Forward has faced a twenty-year prohibition from the restaurant, Thitinan asserted that the royalist establishment has victimized Pheu Thai.